Don’t wish for it. Work for it.
DEC / 2018

Exponential trends

At the core of my futurecast, I examined and found analogous solutions, exponential tech, and other references that paint a complex and highly advanced future where transit networks, databases, and riders are highly interconnected.
Tactical transit
︎New principles for rapid iteration and transit experiments   ︎Increasing speed of iteration
Hyperloop/ultra high-speed travel︎Anyone can transit the globe in hours
︎Huge influx of global culture-sharing
Electric vehicles
︎Vehicle lifespan now multiple decades
︎ICEs now minority of car purchases
︎Maintenance costs significantly less
Machine learning (deep learning)︎Planning likely taken over by algorithms that are more efficient
︎Automated systems are everywhere
New era of street planning︎Intersections without traffic lights
︎Avenues only for autonomous cars
︎Roadways with solar panels

Increased tunneling︎Huge tunnel networks begin to replace roadway systems in urban areas
︎Traffic congestion begins to decline
Flexible and transparent displays︎Screens are now everywhere
︎Wearables are seamless
︎Open interconnectivity
Sensors everywhere︎Passenger tracking leads to highly-efficient planning and adjusting
︎Scheduling adjusted on-demand

︎Sensors on platforms, vehicles, and wearables
Japan’s transit network︎Highly efficient and interconnected becomes model around the world
︎Maglev becomes standard for high-speed trains, old lines upgraded
Computing surpasses human intelligence︎Computing occurs on servers, not locally
︎Computers and wearables become just displays with batteries
Agency interconnectivity︎Wireless payments and ticketing create seamless travel
︎Increased data sharing and efficiency

︎Private transit agencies work harmoniously with public networks
Car companies ︎ Mobility companies︎Purchase private ridesharing companies and their networks
︎Also own bikesharing, e-bikes, last-mile technology
Everything is autonomous︎Buses, trains, planes—all with a stronger safety record
︎Virtually all accidents/fatalities are eliminated
More light rail, streetcars, and BRT︎Urban rail transit becomes widespread and jumpstarts development corridors globally
︎BRT becomes popular for smaller urban communities
Private sector lobbying︎Profitable companies paying for increased political lobbying efforts
︎Some cities embrace private transit wholeheartedly, others do not
Average lifespan ︎ to 90 years︎More senior citizens using transit for mobility and freedom
︎Autonomous vehicles are a major breakthrough for seniors who cannot drive
Construction times shortened︎Technology improvements
︎TBMs speed is increased drastically

︎BRT becomes fastest means to implement rapid transit
Cities continue to expand︎Rural areas general decline in population
︎Hyperloop connects distant residential areas with major cities
︎Commute distances increased
Increased public-private partnerships︎Private companies with ability to bankroll construction and operation with municipalities paying back over time
︎Increased transit construction
More remote jobs︎Some education now globally universal (ie. software engineering)
︎Fiber-optic internet for ultra-high quality video conferencing
︎Transit congestion during commute hours begins to plateau
Smartphones are universal ︎Affordability and subsidies enables universal access for everyone
︎Becomes critical part of life (ie. payments, communication, ID cards)
On-demand becomes the norm︎Transportation is increasingly flexible, even for public agencies
︎Smartphone access for everyone enables fewer zero capacity rides